Phase 1 of CAPE will cover approximately 63% of the roughly 53 million import entries for which IEEPA duties were paid. The remaining 37%, including entries flagged for reconciliation, subject to drawback claims, covered by open protests or otherwise excluded, will be deferred to later phases, with no confirmed timeline.
Even for qualifying entries, CBP has committed to a 45-day processing window after a CAPE declaration is accepted, meaning payment will not be immediate. And as of March 26, while 26,664 importers of record had completed electronic payment registration — representing 78% of entries by volume — the Mass Processing component of CAPE stands at only 60% complete.
Uncertainty, in other words, remains — but it is no longer absolute.
“The approach of tax day is a potent reminder that the government has the capacity to deliver refunds to taxpayers on a much larger scale than what is being asked now of CBP,” says Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel & Footwear Association, representing brands including Adidas, H&M, Lululemon and Skims. “These refunds need to be returned to the importer of record fully, quickly and automatically.”
A market built on uncertainty
The claim-trading market began taking shape last fall, almost as soon as the first lawsuits against the IEEPA tariffs started moving through the courts. At that stage, offers were highly speculative — some as low as 15 cents on the dollar, according to people familiar with the transactions. Once the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case, prices climbed to 25 to 30 cents. As oral arguments signaled a likely overturn, they reached 50 cents, and then rose to 75 cents after the ruling. Today, sellers can expect to receive around 80 cents on the dollar.
Pricing, in other words, has tracked legal momentum in near real time.
One deal currently in progress involves a claim of approximately $80 million, being sold at roughly 79 cents, meaning the company receives about $63.2 million in immediate liquidity — illustrating both the scale of the market and the financial pressure driving it.
Publicly traded companies, however, appear to be largely sitting out. The disclosure implications — explaining to shareholders why a company accepted a fraction of what they’re owed rather than holding out for the full amount — create a reputational calculus many are unwilling to navigate.
But some privately held brands in the sector say they have received similar unsolicited proposals.
“We’ve been approached a number of times by parties looking to buy our IEEPA tariff refund — even before the Supreme Court ruling,” says Aaron Sanandres, co-founder and CEO of Untuckit and founder of Definite Articles. “It’s always interesting to see where the market is valuing these receivables, as it hints at the market’s expected timing to collect.”
Untuckit has not committed to a deal, but Sanandres’s observation captures the core logic of the market: pricing is less about value than time.
Why fashion is receptive
The fashion industry’s relative comfort with claim-trading is not accidental. For decades, apparel, footwear and accessories brands shipping goods to major retailers have sold their accounts receivable to factors — third parties who advance cash against future payments. The mechanics are familiar: sell the claim and take cash now to keep the business moving.
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